New earnings season: stock market predictions & earnings estimates
As we all know, stock market predictions are difficult, especially when equities vacillate and the interest rate policy could be on a cusp of changing. This is why investors seek out the best earnings estimates and whispers in earnings cycles at such pivotal moments.
Wall Street analysts have been lowering their EPS estimates for this earnings season more than usual. This is a common trend as the earnings season approaches, but this quarter the reductions have been larger than typical. The reasons for this go beyond economic and include the global risks from the war in Ukraine to Covid’s fallout in China. However, mixed earnings surprises we saw in the last few days suggest a middle-of-the-road quarter for corporate profits. Some stocks have risen on announcement, but others have fallen.
As the earnings season begins, market participants are concerned about the dual risks of inflation and recession. As central banks became serious about tackling inflation risks, the potential for a recession looms as a larger concern. This is due to the ongoing economic uncertainty and the potential for further increases in interest rates. Yet the inflation concerns are still present.
We’re off to the races
Reporting by big US banks kicked the season off. Their profits declined by about 20% compared to last year, but that drop was largely “baked into” the market’s expectations. In fact, the narrative from bank earnings calls was cautiously optimistic, at least in the short term. The banks are reporting solid results which are somewhat dampened by purely regulatory reasons (Fed-mandated caution about the economic environment). They could have been higher under older accounting rules.
Despite the concerns about inflation and recession, investors are still hoping for a return to a “goldilocks moment” where the economy is not too hot and not too cold. A healthy economy with low inflation and steady growth is the ideal scenario, and many are looking for that silver lining. Even waves of layoff announcements at banks and tech companies have met positive reactions from investors, with some joking about staff cuts being the new buybacks.
As the earnings season progresses, we will have a better idea of whether or not this is possible. Right now it’s especially important for investors to keep a close eye on earnings surprises.
Which companies will beat the Wall St analyst consensus? Our state-of-the-art analytics and stock market predictions are here to help you make the best investing decisions. All of our AI’s earnings predictions and a lot more details are available at stocks.proximilar.com.
Our weekly stock forecasts
Below are the reporting companies by sector. Most of the big names we cover in this post are likely to outperform the Street consensus. Unsurprisingly, Tech announcements are the plurality at this point in the cycle.
Tech and Comms
Tesla Inc (TSLA): $1.20 Proximilar’s AI EPS estimate vs. $1.15 consensus stock prediction
Microsoft Corp (MSFT): $2.38 our forecast vs. $2.30 consensus EPS estimate
Apple Inc (AAPL): $2.03 our forecast vs. $1.96 consensus
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN): $0.18 our estimate vs. $0.18 consensus
Meta Platforms Inc (META): $2.28 our estimate vs. $2.23 consensus
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL): $1.20 our estimate vs. $1.18 consensus
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD): $0.70 our estimate vs. $0.67 consensus
Intel Corp (INTC): $0.25 our estimate vs. $0.20 consensus
International Business Machines Corp (IBM): $3.73 our estimate vs. $3.60 consensus
Texas Instruments Inc (TXN): $2.13 our estimate vs. $1.99 consensus
AT&T Inc (T): $0.61 our estimate vs. $0.57 consensus
Verizon Communications Inc (VZ): $1.22 our estimate vs. $1.19 consensus
ServiceNow Inc (NOW): $2.20 our estimate vs. $2.02 consensus
Qualcomm Inc (QCOM): $2.44 our estimate vs. $2.36 consensus
Electronic Arts Inc (EA): $3.08 our estimate vs. $3.05 consensus
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI): $3.91 our estimate vs. $3.63 consensus
ASML Holding Nv (ASML): $5.15 our estimate vs. $4.59 consensus
Lam Research Corp (LRCX): $10.52 our estimate vs. $10.05 consensus
Snap Inc (SNAP): $0.13 our estimate vs. $0.11 consensus
Boeing Co (BA): -$0.14 Proximilar’s AI EPS estimate vs. $0.22 consensus EPS estimate
Raytheon Technologies Corp (RTX): $1.32 our forecast vs. $1.24 consensus EPS estimate
3M Co (MMM): $2.48 our estimate vs. $2.36 consensus EPS estimate
American Airlines Group Inc (AAL): $1.07 our estimate vs. $0.93 consensus
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS): $3.74 our estimate vs. $3.59 consensus
General Electric Co (GE): $1.23 our estimate vs. $1.15 consensus
General Dynamics Corp (GD): $3.64 our estimate vs. $3.55 consensus
Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT): $7.61 our estimate vs. $7.41 consensus
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): $2.31 our estimate vs. $2.23 consensus
Merck & Co Inc (MRK): $1.70 our estimate vs. $1.53 consensus
Pfizer Inc (PFE): $1.16 our estimate vs. $1.08 consensus
Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG): $1.28 our estimate vs. $1.26 consensus
Abbott Laboratories (ABT): $1.04 our estimate vs. $0.92 consensus
Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD): $1.65 our estimate vs. $1.51 consensus
Amgen Inc (AMGN): $4.30 our estimate vs. $4.08 consensus
Visa Inc (V): $2.10 our estimate vs. $2.01 consensus
Mastercard Inc (MA): $2.69 our estimate vs. $2.57 consensus
Materials and Energy
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM): $3.67 our estimate vs. $3.33 consensus
Chevron Corp (CVX): $4.50 our estimate vs. $4.33 consensus
Halliburton Co (HAL): $0.70 our estimate vs. $0.67 consensus
Valero Energy Corp (VLO): $7.92 our estimate vs. $7.51 consensus
Freeport-McMoran Inc (FCX): $0.45 our estimate vs. $0.45 consensus
Consumer (Cyclical and Defensive)
McDonalds Corp (MCD): $2.52 our estimate vs. $2.44 consensus
Comcast Corp (CMCSA): $0.85 our estimate vs. $0.78 consensus
Ford Motor Co (F): $0.64 our estimate vs. $0.62 consensus
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM): $1.83 our estimate vs. $1.66 consensus
Starbucks Corp (SBUX): $0.82 our estimate vs. $0.77 consensus
Horton D R Inc (DHI): $2.38 our estimate vs. $2.26 consensus
Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN): -$1.17 our estimate vs. -$1.16 consensus
It is hard to cover all the upcoming releases in this short summary. For a complete picture, including EPS estimates, revenue forecasts, stocks’ reactions to announcements, and much more, head over to our web app at stocks.proximilar.com. Proximilar provides the world’s most detailed and accurate earnings and revenues forecasts.