New earnings season: stock market predictions & earnings estimates
This week marks the start of the Q3 earnings season in the US. Global macroeconomic uncertainty dominates the headlines, and investors’ will be viewing companies’ results through that prism. This is not a surprise, as 2022 is now becoming one of the worst years on record for the S&P 500. Stock market predictions are hard, and market participants seek out the best earnings estimates as equities extend their losses on fears of economic slowdown and perhaps recession. Analysts project slower earnings growth than we have seen in recent years, potentially weakening the hopes for market recovery. We will discuss our AI’s predictions of the macro picture in a separate post, but for now it suffices to say the outlook is less than rosy.
As companies struggle with the combination of untamed inflation and rising borrowing costs, the upcoming earnings reports will be monitored closely for signs of a profitability squeeze. The good news is, we may not be in a recession yet, since earnings estimates for the next 12-24 months are holding up reasonably well. There may not be much growth ahead, but no pronounced decline is anticipated, either. Still, concerns about inflation persist, as does the risk that the Fed will keep raising rates in an open-ended fashion.
Upcoming announcements: stock forecasts
As usual, financial institutions lead the reporting in the season’s first couple of weeks.
Financial institutions
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM): $3.00 Proximilar’s AI EPS estimate vs. $2.92 consensus stock prediction
Bank of America Corp (BAC): $0.80 our AI forecast vs. $0.78 consensus EPS stock prediction
Citigroup Inc (C): $1.76 our EPS forecast vs. $1.56 consensus EPS estimate
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS): $8.40 our AI estimate vs. $7.76 consensus EPS estimate
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC): $1.18 our estimate vs. $1.13 consensus EPS estimate
Morgan Stanley (MS): $1.61 our estimate vs. $1.52 consensus
American Express Co (AXP): $2.58 our estimate vs. $2.40 consensus
Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK): $1.14 our estimate vs. $1.11 consensus
PNC Financial Services Group (PNC): $3.90 our estimate vs. $3.72 consensus
US Bancorp (USB): $1.17 our estimate vs. $1.13 consensus
Blackrock Inc (BLK): $7.60 our estimate vs. $7.45 consensus
Schwab Charles Corp (SCHW): $1.08 our estimate vs. $1.05 consensus
Blackstone Inc (BX): $1.06 our estimate vs. $1.00 consensus
Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR): $1.02 our estimate vs. $0.99 consensus
Tech and Comms
International Business Machines (IBM): $1.92 Proximilar’s AI EPS estimate vs. $1.80 consensus EPS stock prediction
Snap Inc (SNAP): -$0.02 our forecast vs. -$0.02 consensus EPS estimate
Verizon Communications Inc (VZ): $1.31 our estimate vs. $1.29 consensus EPS estimate
AT&T Inc (T): $0.64 our estimate vs. $0.61 consensus
Lam Research Corp (LRCX): $9.78 our estimate vs. $9.50 consensus
Atlassian Corp (TEAM): $0.40 our estimate vs. $0.40 consensus
Logitech International (LOGI): $0.87 our estimate vs. $0.86 consensus
Consumer (Cyclical and Defensive)
Netflix Inc (NFLX): $2.37 our AI EPS estimate vs. $2.18 consensus EPS estimate
PepsiCo Inc (PEP): $1.94 our estimate vs. $1.85 consensus EPS estimate
Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ): $2.97 our estimate vs. $2.99 consensus
Procter & Gamble Co (PG): $1.60 our estimate vs. $1.57 consensus
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA): $0.82 our estimate vs. $0.77 consensus
Tractor Supply Co (TSCO): $2.15 our estimate vs. $2.08 consensus
Crocs Inc (CROX): $2.80 our estimate vs. $2.62 consensus
Boston Beer Co (SAM): $2.78 our estimate vs. $3.30 consensus
Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS): -$0.26 our estimate vs. -$0.23 consensus
Philip Morris International Inc (PM): $1.51 our estimate vs. $1.37 consensus
Industrials, Materials and Energy
Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL): $1.60 our estimate vs. $1.55 consensus EPS estimate
Alcoa Corp (AA): $0.26 our estimate vs. $0.21 consensus
Dow Inc (DOW): $1.36 our estimate vs. $1.26 consensus
Nucor Corp (NUE): $6.95 our estimate vs. $6.77 consensus
PPG Industries Inc (PPG): $1.94 our estimate vs. $1.84 consensus
Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI): $0.30 our estimate vs. $0.29 consensus
Dover Corp (DOV): $2.28 our estimate vs. $2.20 consensus
Schlumberger Limited (SLB): $0.58 our estimate vs. $0.55 consensus
United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL): $2.28 our estimate vs. $2.23 consensus
Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK): $2.57 our estimate vs. $2.41 consensus
ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN): $2.29 our estimate vs. $2.18 consensus
American Airlines Group Inc (AAL): $0.51 our estimate vs. $0.45 consensus
Health care
Unitedhealth Group Inc (UNH): $5.63 our estimate vs. $5.43 consensus
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): $2.64 our estimate vs. $2.52 consensus
Abbott Laboratories (ABT): $1.06 our estimate vs. $0.94 consensus
Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG): $1.14 our estimate vs. $1.12 consensus
HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA): $3.97 our estimate vs. $3.88 consensus
Looking further down the road
The week of October 24 will be far more busy than the season’s first couple weeks. Tech names will take over the spotlight, with Industrials and Healthcare sectors also featuring prominently. Below is a quick look at the most important highlights for late October:
Technology
Apple Inc (AAPL): $1.32 Proximilar’s AI EPS estimate vs. $1.26 consensus stock estimate
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL): $1.32 our AI estimate vs. $1.28 consensus EPS stock prediction
Microsoft Corp (MSFT): $2.40 our forecast vs. $2.33 consensus EPS estimate
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN): $0.20 our estimate vs. $0.22 consensus EPS estimate
Intel Corp (INTC): $0.38 our estimate vs. $0.35 consensus
Shopify Inc (SHOP): -$0.07 our estimate vs. -$0.07 consensus
Twitter Inc (TWTR): $0.02 our estimate vs. $0.03 consensus
Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH): $1.21 our estimate vs. $1.10 consensus
Texas Instruments Inc (TXN): $2.50 our estimate vs. $2.40 consensus
Fiserv Inc (FISV): $1.75 our estimate vs. $1.71 consensus
Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC): -$0.34 our estimate vs. -$0.47 consensus
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd (CHKP): $1.73 our estimate vs. $1.67 consensus
eBay Inc (EBAY): $0.99 our estimate vs. $0.92 consensus
ServiceNow Inc (NOW): $2.03 our estimate vs. $1.85 consensus
First Solar Inc (FSLR): -$0.11 our estimate vs. -$0.19 consensus
Juniper Networks Inc (JNPR): $0.51 our estimate vs. $0.50 consensus
Health care
Abbvie Inc (ABBV): $3.67 Proximilar’s AI EPS estimate vs. $3.60 consensus stock prediction
Merck & Co Inc (MRK): $1.97 our estimate vs. $1.76 consensus EPS estimate
Biogen Inc (BIIB): $4.63 our estimate vs. $4.14 consensus
Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD): $1.65 our estimate vs. $1.53 consensus
Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY): $1.93 our estimate vs. $1.83 consensus
Boston Scientific Corp (BSX): $0.46 our estimate vs. $0.45 consensus
Edwards Lifesciences Corp (EW): $0.63 our estimate vs. $0.62 consensus
Centene Corp (CNC): $1.33 our estimate vs. $1.23 consensus
Align Technology Inc (ALGN): $2.18 our estimate vs. $2.16 consensus
Consumer (Cyclical and Defensive)
Ford Motor Co (F): $0.40 our estimate vs. $0.34 consensus EPS estimate
McDonalds Corp (MCD): $2.68 our estimate vs. $2.60 consensus EPS estimate
Coca-Cola Co (KO): $0.68 our estimate vs. $0.64 consensus
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG): $9.49 our estimate vs. $9.15 consensus
Comcast Corp (CMCSA): $0.97 our estimate vs. $0.90 consensus
O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY): $8.57 our estimate vs. $8.46 consensus
Industrials, Materials and Energy
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM): $3.76 our estimate vs. $3.58 consensus EPS estimate
General Electric Co (GE): $0.60 our estimate vs. $0.51 consensus EPS estimate
Boeing Co (BA): $0.05 our estimate vs. $0.22 consensus
Caterpillar Inc (CAT): $3.39 our estimate vs. $3.17 consensus
Sherwin Williams Co (SHW): $2.58 our estimate vs. $2.59 consensus
3M Co (MMM): $2.76 our estimate vs. $2.63 consensus
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS): $3.01 our estimate vs. $2.87 consensus
Chevron Corp (CVX): $5.01 our estimate vs. $4.83 consensus
Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT): $7.06 our estimate vs. $6.67 consensus
Pentair (PNR): $0.96 our estimate vs. $0.94 consensus
Peabody Energy Corp (BTU): $1.88 our estimate vs. $1.90 consensus
General Dynamics Corp (GD): $3.22 our estimate vs. $3.16 consensus
Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC): $6.33 our estimate vs. $6.12 consensus
Financial institutions
Visa Inc (V): $1.96 our estimate vs. $1.87 consensus
Capital One Financial Corp (COF): $5.29 our estimate vs. $5.11 consensus
It is hard to cover all the intricacies of the upcoming releases in this short summary. For a complete picture, including EPS estimates, revenue forecasts, stocks’ reactions to announcements, and much more, head over to our web app at stocks.proximilar.com. Proximilar provides the world’s most detailed and accurate earnings and revenues forecasts.