If you have already gotten a file with our forecasts, Congratulations! (And if not, we highly recommend that you get it now — the green button below will do the trick.)
When you first open this spreadsheet, you are confronted with a tremendous wealth of information about the upcoming earnings reports for the next week or two. The sheer quantity of data is almost dizzying. To get the most value out of it, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the ways Proximilar can help you make better investing decisions.
The number of data fields we offer is big enough that it makes sense to split this blog post into two parts. Today, in part one, we will focus on fundamental forecasts: earnings & sales estimates and surprises.
Earnings per share (EPS) estimate
This is the cornerstone of Proximilar’s forecasting: our AI’s best estimate of the company’s upcoming earnings. It is a lot more accurate than the analyst consensus.
Proximilar AI’s forecast of the company’s quarterly revenues, in millions of USD.
EPS surprise forecast
Our AI’s best estimate of the analyst consensus error, also known as an earnings surprise.
Our surprise forecasts for upcoming earnings tend to be stable over time, but consensus estimates can sometimes change quickly. When that happens, you can update our AI EPS forecast by simply adding our surprise forecast to the new consensus estimate you get from your broker or favorite finance site.
if the EPS consensus for XYZ Corp. is $3.00, and
Proximilar’s EPS surprise forecast is $0.14,
the best AI EPS forecast is $3.00 + $0.14 = $3.14
Revenue surprise forecast
In this forecast our AI tells you how wrong it expects the Wall St sales consensus to be. It’s our best estimate of the analysts’ error, a.k.a. revenue surprise.
Just like our EPS surprise forecasts, Proximilar’s revenue surprise forecasts usually remain stable over time. So when consensus estimates for this week’s earnings change at the last minute, you can easily update our best AI revenue forecast: just add our surprise forecast to the latest consensus revenue estimate.
if the revenue consensus for XYZ Corp. is $2,500 million, and
Proximilar’s revenue surprise forecast is $218 million, then
the best AI revenue forecast is $2,500 + $218 = $2,718 million
Our model rates how unusually large each surprise we forecast is. We use a scale from -5 to 5,
where -5 represents most unusually big downside surprise forecast,
and 5 corresponds to most exceptional upside surprise forecasts.
Values in the middle (e.g., 1, 0, -1) mean the AI does not expect a major surprise one way or the other.
Proximilar computes such ratings for both EPS and revenue surprises.
We then combine them into a Total Surprise Rating, which uses the same -5 to 5 scale.