Earnings Surprises to Expect: Alphabet, Amazon and Meta

The earnings season is approaching its peak: this week will see over 300 important EPS and revenue announcements. The companies releasing their results in the next few days are a diverse bunch, but the biggest names will come from Tech and Healthcare sectors. Alphabet (GOOGL, the parent company of Google), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (FB, the parent of Facebook), will be setting the tone as the most watched technology companies. Meanwhile, Abbvie (ABBV), Novartis (NVS), Eli Lilly (LLY) and Merck (MRK) will lead the pharma pack starting Wednesday.

But the biggest surprises our AI anticipates will likely come from corporations in other sectors. For instance, we forecast the largest revenue surprise this week for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) at $4.2 billion, for a total quarterly revenue forecast of about $25.3 billion. Also, our AI expects the largest EPS beat to come from T-Mobile (TMUS), which we expect to beat consensus earnings by 35% or by $0.07. And insurance giants Chubb (CB), MetLife (MET) and Cigna (CI) top the list of the large companies that are most likely to outperform Wall St consensus.

Weekly highlights

Here is a brief rundown of our AI’s most significant earnings estimates for this week.

  • Alphabet (GOOGL): $30.85 Proximilar AI EPS forecast vs. $27.65 Wall Street analyst consensus estimate vs. $29.21 whisper number
  • Amazon.com (AMZN): $4.46 Proximilar EPS estimate vs. $3.72 consensus estimate vs. $4.40 earnings whisper
  • Meta Platforms (FB): $4.11 our EPS estimate vs. $3.85 consensus
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM): $2.07 our estimate vs. $1.95 consensus
  • Abbvie (ABBV): $3.38 our estimate vs. $3.29 consensus
  • Paypal Holdings (PYPL): $1.20 our estimate vs. $1.12 consensus
  • Qualcomm (QCOM): $3.22 our estimate vs. $3.01 consensus
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): $0.84 ours vs. $0.76 consensus
  • Starbucks (SBUX): $0.84 ours vs. $0.79 consensus
  • Ford Motor (F): $0.55 ours vs. $0.45 consensus

Among the companies on the list above, AMD is poised for the most volatile earnings release. Our AI estimates a 9.4% standard deviation of the one-day stock price move following the announcement. The options market expects a move of about 7%, which we think is too complacent an estimate.

Looking ahead to next week

The earnings week of February 7 should be at least as busy as this one. We will see EPS announcements from a mix of companies in different industry sectors: Healthcare (Pfizer (PFE), CVS Health (CVS)), Consumer (Walt Disney (DIS), Coca-Cola (KO)), Tech (Twitter (TWTR), Twilio (TWLO)), and others. We will be looking for particularly strong performances on both the top and bottom lines from CVS, BP plc (BP) and Uber Technologies (UBER). See our latest forecast sheet for all the details.

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